Take a look at these eight analysts' forecasts for Gannett's revenue and earnings per share. The estimates cover the just-completed first quarter, plus the second quarter; full 2011 year, and next year.
I've been looking at these in the context of GCI's actual quarterly results in anticipation of the first-quarter earnings report scheduled for April 18 -- one week from Monday.
Note: GCI stock closed today at $15.20 a share, down 33 cents, or 2.1%.
Earlier: COO Gracia Martore cautions investors on outlook.
I've been looking at these in the context of GCI's actual quarterly results in anticipation of the first-quarter earnings report scheduled for April 18 -- one week from Monday.
Note: GCI stock closed today at $15.20 a share, down 33 cents, or 2.1%.
Earlier: COO Gracia Martore cautions investors on outlook.
Yes, but what I don't understand about those analysts' estimates is where the additional $80 million in income is going to come from in this current quarter. The second quarter of the year is not particularly rosy, given no holidays requiring spending and readers saving for their vacations. My conclusion is these estimates are too high.
ReplyDeleteP.S. I also believe GCI will be reporting larger drops in the last quarter than Gracia told the analysts with her ballpark esimate.
Yes, but what I don't understand about those analysts' estimates is where the additional $80 million in income is going to come from in this current quarter. The second quarter of the year is not particularly rosy, given no holidays requiring spending and readers saving for their vacations. My conclusion is these estimates are too high.
ReplyDeleteP.S. I also believe GCI will be reporting larger drops in the last quarter than Gracia told the analysts with her ballpark esimate.
4/06/2011 1:55 PM
Even while GCI's overall revenue continues to drop, income can be easily adjusted by more cost cuttings, layoffs and furloughs to meet expectations. Afterall that is what they have been doing all along. The only problem with this strategy is that it will only continue to work at certain revenue levels, once revenue levels drop to a point maintaining income is going to be extremely difficult if not impossible and that is when the scales will tip and GCI will start posting losses. How long that will take is anyone's guess but I would venture that once annual revenue starts dipping south of $4 billion, not only will Wall Street see this company like all the insiders do now, but income and their stock price will be drastically effected.
2:21 I think that tipping point is here, and showed up when GCI reported a decline in year-over-year revenue last quarter.
ReplyDeleteOver the last 12 months Gannett execs (Insiders) have made 24 trades of GCI - 22 sells, 2 buys..
ReplyDeleteNot much concern about profits around the crystal palace today. To celebrate unsung heroes awards, they have flown in scores of gannettoids, thrown out the red carpet (for real) and have a big spread of fancy food and booze for the entitled. Ridiculous waste of money when we have to justify basic news gathering expenses. As usual, management is tone deaf. What a frigging waste.
ReplyDeleteAppetizers include lobster. There's imported beer and wine. I bet everyone ix staying at the nearby Ritz carlton tonight. Don't forget to expense that steak dinner!
ReplyDeleteThe P/E on GCI is very low (around 6x, where 10-12x is more common). If they could stabilize revenues, the stock could easily double from here.
ReplyDeleteBut without that "if" coming true, it is unlikely, and there's been no evidence to support that "if" happening anytime soon.
The P/E on GCI is very low (around 6x, where 10-12x is more common). If they could stabilize revenues, the stock could easily double from here.
ReplyDeleteBut without that "if" coming true, it is unlikely, and there's been no evidence to support that "if" happening anytime soon.
4/06/2011 4:12 PM
Good point and you are correct about the "if" Gannett has no way of stabilizing revenue because all of their "products" are worth less and less every year, so in turn there is less interest in them and their revenue declines reflect that..there really is not bottom. You could compare this to Apple Computer still selling on Macintosh computers and thinking, "we're making enough of this already, why would we want to come up with anything new?" but they didn't and most viable companies don't. Gannett is truly a business wonder and not in a good way.
Oh my gosh they had "imported beer and wine!" yes people there was, wait for it.......Corona! Oh the horror, oh the shame! And, and, oh my Gosh, I can hardly say it, anyone in the building could drink it. How could they do it. I mean one of the Unsung Herod actually dared to save another person's life at 2:00am during his work shift and these insensitive leaders actually insulted him and everyone else by honoring him and his colleagues with, oh I can hardly get the words out, imported beer and a pastry that may have had s piece of lobster in it!! And get this, after giving them imported Corona beer they made their colleagues sit through a ceremony where they, oh it pains me to say this, thanked each person in front of their peers for their fine contributions. When will it stop people, when!
ReplyDeleteThe unsung heroes were inspiring. How can you all find fault with this? come on, there is enough to pick on without making stuff up.
ReplyDeleteThe unsung heroes were inspiring. How can you all find fault with this? come on, there is enough to pick on without making stuff up.
ReplyDelete4/07/2011 10:23 AM
Stop drinking the koolaide!!!!