Monday, April 18, 2011

Pop quiz | How quarterly numbers can deceive

Today, Corporate reiterated its position that Gannett is on the road to prosperity. In the first-quarter earnings report, CEO Craig Dubow told investors: "We accelerated the pace of our strategic transformation efforts to further strengthen and position our company for growth."

That would be a big improvement from two years ago, when the world's economy was poised to fall off a cliff amid a credit crisis that created the Great Recession. GCI has long since bounced back, we've been told.

So, which of the following was the company's total operating revenue during that scary quarter back in 2009?

(Note: Clicking on the links, above, will provide the correct answer.)

15 comments:

  1. Note: The Honolulu Advertiser was sold during the second quarter of 2010. Still, its revenue was less than $25 million during that period, and probably even lower in 2009.

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  2. Jim selling a newspaper doesn't add to operating revenue if that is what you are impling

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  3. Someone should write the book, "Deal Chicken - the fall of a media empire"

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  4. 12:06 That's not what I'm implying.

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  5. Jim I don't get it either. What are you saying about the Honolulu sale?

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  6. Good god, I swear I've heard that buzz phrase "further strengthen and position our company for growth," for years now. How can he even say it with a straight face? Is there one person left who believes that line anymore?

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  7. I guess the sorry excuse for a board of directors believes it.

    G A N N E T T, where hyperbole rules.

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  8. 2:22 I now see that my comment about the Honolulu Advertiser was confusing. Before I clarify that, allow me to explain the central point of this post.

    Gannett's first-quarter revenue in 2009 -- when the economy was near its lowest point -- was $1.38 billion.

    Now, two years later, first-quarter revenue is even lower: $1.25 billion -- the figure reported yesterday.

    In other words, despite all of Corporate's talk about transformation, GCI's revenue has fallen an additional $127 million beyond what should have been a low point in 2009.

    Even if you figure in the sale of the Honolulu Advertiser and the loss of its approximately $25 million in revenue, GCI's revenue has still declined by $100 million since 2009.

    And based on recent trends, it's still falling -- even as the economy is growing.

    Much of that lost revenue over the past two years -- perhaps $50-$70 million -- was at USA Today, according to one of my readers. Another big chuck would be from The Arizona Republic.

    Still, no matter how you slice it, the fact GCI continues losing revenue ground long after the recession's end speaks volumes about a failing strategy under Dubow and Martore.

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  9. Still, no matter how you slice it, the fact GCI continues losing revenue ground long after the recession's end speaks volumes about a failing strategy under Dubow and Martore.
    4/19/2011 12:26 PM

    I agree with you completely, the only problem now is that even though Dubow and Martore are probably amongst the worst American corporate executives, there is nothing them or anyone else can do anymore. The newspaper business is a dying business. Gannett's revenue will continue to spiral downward all the way to ZERO, the only unknown is how long it will take to happen. If a company is deriving almost all of their revenue from print (i.e. Gannett, Lee, McClatchy, etc.) then their outlook for the future is very very poor. What will more than likely happen is that companies like News Corp., Disney will end up buying the assets of Gannett and companies like them once they become diluted enough, since a very small part of their overall revenue is driven by anything in print. Gannett has been diagnosed with cancer just don't know how long it has left to live :)

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  10. So, 12:53 pm, if I am offered a position with another newspaper, I should run the other way?
    I agree that newspapers are challenged, and perhaps the big media companies are going to abandon print, but is there a niche for a smaller operation?

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  11. "Still, no matter how you slice it, the fact GCI continues losing revenue ground long after the recession's end speaks volumes about a failing strategy under Dubow and Martore."

    I think you're letting your feelings into your argument. "Long after the recession's end..." Are you serious? Business is poor across many sectors. Have you checked the unemployment numbers recently? Are you positive about retail sales? You thinking housing just popped back up on it's feet in mid-'09?

    I don't mind bash-the-executives posts as long as they are well reasoned. But this is simply knee-jerk. Did you see how much debt GCI repaid in the quarter? And do you have any conception of how bad numbers could have looked over the last two years?

    I would suggest given the dramatic changes in the economy you should start at least contemplating acknowledging a winning strategy that includes continued lower revenue.

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  12. "Still, no matter how you slice it, the fact GCI continues losing revenue ground long after the recession's end speaks volumes about a failing strategy under Dubow and Martore."

    I think you're letting your feelings into your argument. "Long after the recession's end..." Are you serious? Business is poor across many sectors. Have you checked the unemployment numbers recently? Are you positive about retail sales? You thinking housing just popped back up on it's feet in mid-'09?

    I don't mind bash-the-executives posts as long as they are well reasoned. But this is simply knee-jerk. Did you see how much debt GCI repaid in the quarter? And do you have any conception of how bad numbers could have looked over the last two years?

    I would suggest given the dramatic changes in the economy you should start at least contemplating acknowledging a winning strategy that includes continued lower revenue.
    4/19/2011 1:33 PM

    Wow Craig, how come you can speak that clearly at press releases....but still you are so out of touch.

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  13. 1:33 The recession ended June 30, 2009 -- nearly 22 months ago -- according to the National Bureau of Economic Research, which is the authority on the subject. Corporate also cited that date in the annual report.

    By my definition, 22 months is a long time.

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  14. So, 12:53 pm, if I am offered a position with another newspaper, I should run the other way?
    I agree that newspapers are challenged, and perhaps the big media companies are going to abandon print, but is there a niche for a smaller operation?
    4/19/2011 1:05 PM

    I never said that...take the job, but don't expect it to last long. You have to go to work everyday thinking you will be let go and save your money and then you will always have enough. I would go back to work for Gannett even if I hate the company and if they let me go who cares, it's free money while it lasts.

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  15. Jim, thanks for your 12:26 posting. A good summary that says it all. Yes, 22 months in what is supposed to be a "nimble" and quick-to-react business is a long time.

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Jim says: "Proceed with caution; this is a free-for-all comment zone. I try to correct or clarify incorrect information. But I can't catch everything. Please keep your posts focused on Gannett and media-related subjects. Note that I occasionally review comments in advance, to reject inappropriate ones. And I ignore hostile posters, and recommend you do, too."

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