Thursday, July 29, 2010

As GCI tumbles, a growing squeeze on 'comps'

Gannett's stock closed moments ago at $13.25 a share, down 65 cents, or 4.7%, in concert with several other newspaper shares. By contrast, the S&P 500 index, a broader measure of stock market activity, closed down less than 1%.

To be sure, GCI remains more than twice as high as a year ago vs. a far smaller 13% gain in the S&P 500.

But that favorable ratio is now getting squeezed as the comparables from a year ago get a lot tougher, Google Finance data show.

For example, on July 1, 2009, Gannett stock closed at $3.66 a share. Then it went on a tear, galloping higher the rest of the summer and into the fall.

By July 31, it had nearly doubled, to $7 a share. And by Oct. 7, it had nearly doubled yet again, to $13 -- near where shares closed today. (Table of historical prices.)

Now, all eyes are on the economy, which has been exhibiting a rocky recovery -- pinching results and share prices in all sorts of industries. Gannett has lots of company.

Still, unless investors warm to the company again, bidding shares higher, GCI's percentage rise from a year ago will appear ever slimmer, and therefore less rosy in Wall Street's eyes. Absent that, Corporate will come under increasing pressure to boost revenue, so Gannett's stock starts moving up once more.

Up? Down? Sideways? Where's GCI headed next? Please post your replies in the comments section, below. To e-mail confidentially, write jimhopkins[at]gmail[dot-com]; see Tipsters Anonymous Policy in the rail, upper right.

4 comments:

  1. Dubow has his nuts caught in a zipper, and there is no painless way out. What Wall Street wants from GCI is increasing revenues, but the Q2 report shows revenues declining. Wrong direction. Corporate thought investors would swoon over the increased profits, but that is meaningless in the long-run if the company is being run-down, as the revenue picture shows. Corporate needs to find new business, and fast, or it's going to be a continued down.

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  2. Well, when the board meets they could firm up all the golden parachutes and exit packages. They might be able to buy a little time with some other BS. They could then again chop costs by cutting deeper into their only proprietary product (content)and ride it out for a year or two until they all leave with the only remaining assests.

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  3. Watch for the institutional investors who started the run up last year to get short in the coming months, having made their long money.

    Then, we may see it happen all over again, though there problably is not enough expense left to cut to drive the same enthusiasm as last year.

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  4. I'm afraid the bigwigs are going to have start cutting again. Unless, of course, they have the balls to wait out what looks like another two years of economic contraction.

    I have to agree with a previous poster: I think we're going to see some overseers easing off the Gannett farm.

    Has Dubow been selling off any of his shares lately?

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