Monday, September 15, 2008
As Wall Street crisis deepens, GCI stock set for fall?
The widely-watched Dow Jones Industrial Average is poised to plunge as much as 300 points when trading resumes at 9:30 a.m. ET today, MarketWatch says, as global markets are rattled by the collapse of Wall Street giant Lehman Brothers. Gannett shares -- which closed Friday at $18.01 -- may well be caught in any downdraft this morning.
15 comments:
Jim says: "Proceed with caution; this is a free-for-all comment zone. I try to correct or clarify incorrect information. But I can't catch everything. Please keep your posts focused on Gannett and media-related subjects. Note that I occasionally review comments in advance, to reject inappropriate ones. And I ignore hostile posters, and recommend you do, too."
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yes, most certainly, and I can't wait till the mutiple layers of management in phoenix get the boot like the common workers..............long overdue!!
ReplyDeleteMotley Fool says GCI closed Friday at $17.53.
ReplyDeleteGCI always seems closely linked to the DJIA, and GCI will definitely fall a good bit over the next two weeks -- but so will almost everybody. It'll all rebound.
ReplyDeleteImportant not to panic; these things happen. Stocks are for the long term.
However, i just hope that there are not a lot of other Lehman Brothers out there.
I agree it will fall, but I do not agree that it will rebound anytime soon. What is happening is a secular shift in the economy away from newspapers, and print is dead. Newspaper-heavy stocks like GCI (and MNI) are in deep trouble. I am forecasting GCI at 5 by Oct. 24, when Q3 reports will show how miserable this quarter has been on revenues. There will be more layoffs and cutbacks to come as well. It is truly a horrible picture, and it could not be worse for GCI or those fools who are keeping GCI stock for their retirement years.
ReplyDeleteHow worried should we be about our (frozen, but still there) pensions?
ReplyDeleteTo 7:47am: I make my living with web based products so I have no bias whatsoever when I say....print is not dead. Certainly in trouble as print media is being hit hard with a recession in the midst of declining trends already. The fact is most newspapers CONTINUE to dominate readership in their markets. If you really think it's dead, put your money where you mouth is and place a private party classified ad offering free $100 bills to the first 100 people to show up at your business and see how many people arrive.
ReplyDelete9:12 If you think that a business operation that spends all this money delivering their product to their customer's doorstep is viable in today's economy, well I don't really know what to say. Deliveries of bread and milk stopped a half century ago, and newspapers are following in their path. If it was every second house, it might still make sense, but it's now every four houses because circulation declines mean that fewer than 26 percent of Americans read newspapers today. Newspapers dominate the readership in their markets because Yellow Pages died a long time ago. Take your $100 bills, and post a message online offering to give them away, and then count how many minutes pass before someone comes knocking on your door.
ReplyDeleteTelephones didn't mark the end of Western Union. Western Union continued to send telegrams until 2006, so I think there are many years left of newspapers.
ReplyDeleteYes print will be dead....WHEN PEOPLE STOP READING!
ReplyDeletePlease can we stop with this argument already. It's foolish and just plain assinine to think that print is dead. We're in a recession, we're having to make some painful adjustments, we have some difficult times ahead.
But print is still making money ( just not as much as those greedy assholes at the top want)
years from now the print product will still be here- probably in a much different form as far as content, physical size etc. Home delivery will be rare or none existent- but the actual newspaper will still be here.
Radio and TV are still around - when the doomsday crowd said they'd be long gone too.
Gannett Co. Inc. releases August statistical report
ReplyDeleteEditors: Gannett Co. Inc. press release. Contact information at end not for publication.
McLEAN, Va. - Gannett Co. Inc. (NYSE: GCI) reported Monday that total pro forma operating revenues for the eighth period ended Aug. 31, 2008, were 9.5 percent lower compared with the same period in 2007. For comparison purposes, the exchange rate of the British pound decreased compared to last year. If the exchange rate had remained constant year-over-year, total pro forma operating revenues would have declined 8.9 percent.
Publishing advertising revenues in August were down 16.8 percent compared with the same period a year ago. On a constant currency basis, publishing advertising revenues would have been 16.1 percent lower.
Retail advertising revenues declined 6.9 percent in the eighth period. In the U.S., across all products, softness in the furniture, telecommunications and home improvement categories led the decline.
Classified revenues were 28.0 percent lower in August. Real estate revenues were down 40.9 percent, employment revenues were 33.6 percent lower and automotive revenues declined 21.1 percent. On a constant currency basis, real estate revenues would have declined 39.9 percent, employment revenues would have been 32.5 percent lower and automotive revenues would have been down 20.1 percent. For U.S. community publishing, classified revenues were 25.8 percent lower in the eighth period comprised of declines of 32.0 percent in real estate revenues, 35.1 percent in employment revenues and 18.3 percent in automotive revenues. Classified revenues at our operations in the UK declined 30.4 percent, in pounds, reflecting declines of 53.6 percent in real estate, 27.2 percent in employment and 25.9 percent in automotive.
National advertising revenues in the eighth period were 13.3 percent lower. At USA TODAY, advertising revenues declined 13.5 percent on paid ad pages of 208 versus 236 last year. At USA TODAY, the telecommunications, advocacy and financial categories were positive in the eighth period while the automotive, technology, retail and home and building categories lagged last year.
Broadcasting revenues, which include Captivate, were 20.7 percent higher. Television revenues were up 21.6 percent in the period as local and national revenues advanced 14.2 percent and 36.0 percent, respectively. The growth was driven by almost $24 million in revenue related to the Olympics on our NBC affiliates and a $6.9 million increase in politically related ad demand.
Based on where we are today, we would expect television revenues for the third quarter of 2008 to be up in the mid-single digits.
In August, Gannett’s domestic Web sites had 26.8 million unique visitors reaching 16.1 percent of the Internet audience.
On Sept. 3, 2008, Gannett acquired an additional 10 percent stake in CareerBuilder from Tribune Company. The acquisition gives the company a 50.8 percent controlling interest in CareerBuilder. CareerBuilder’s results will be fully consolidated in Gannett’s financial statements beginning in Period 9.
On July 8, 2008, Gannett acquired from Tribune Company and The McClatchy Company, in separate transactions, their minority ownership interests in ShopLocal LLC. Pro forma “Other revenue” reflects the results for ShopLocal for all periods presented.
To conform with current year presentation, the company’s equity share of operating results for 2007 from its newspaper partnerships, including Tucson, which participates in a joint operating agency, the California Newspapers Partnership and the Texas-New Mexico Newspapers Partnership have been reclassified from “Other revenue” and are reflected in a separate line in the Non-Operating section of the Statement of Income titled “Equity income (losses) in unconsolidated investees, net.” Other revenue is now comprised principally of commercial printing revenues and revenue from PointRoll and ShopLocal.
Circulation volume numbers for Newsquest’s paid daily newspapers are included in the enclosed statistics, but volume from unpaid daily and non-daily publications is not included in the circulation volume statistics.
Gannett Co. Inc. is a leading international news and information company that publishes 85 daily newspapers in the United States, including USA TODAY, the nation’s largest-selling daily newspaper. The company also owns nearly 900 non-daily publications in the U.S. and USA WEEKEND, a weekly newspaper magazine. Gannett subsidiary Newsquest is the United Kingdom’s second largest regional newspaper company. Newsquest publishes nearly 300 titles, including 17 daily newspapers, and a network of prize-winning Web sites. Gannett also operates 23 television stations in the United States and is an Internet leader with sites sponsored by its TV stations and newspapers including USATODAY.com, one of the most popular news sites on the Web.
Certain statements in this press release may be forward looking in nature or “forward looking statements” as defined in the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. The forward looking statements contained in this press release are subject to a number of risks, trends and uncertainties that could cause actual performance to differ materially from these forward looking statements. A number of those risks, trends and uncertainties are discussed in the company’s SEC reports, including the company’s annual report on Form 10-K and quarterly reports on Form 10-Q. Any forward looking statements in this press release should be evaluated in light of these important risk factors.
Gannett is not responsible for updating the information contained in this press release beyond the published date, or for changes made to this press release by wire services, Internet service providers or other media.
—
For investor inquiries, contact: Jeffrey Heinz, Director, Investor Relations, at 703-854-6917 or jheinz(AT)gannett.com.
7:47 you have no solid basis for your comments. just drama.
ReplyDeleteGo find some facts and report back.
I guarantee you Print Is Not Dead.
In fact, when big news happens, newspapers sell more than any other medium for details and perspective.
If the stock falls further, buy it.
11:24 -
ReplyDeleteDid you give the same advice to the poor employees over at TRIBUNE, or Journal, or GateHouse. $10,000 invested in Journal 3 years ago is worth about $300 Now.
TRIBUNE (Zell) deal closed on Dec 20th, 2007; Look at their credit rating >> IMMINENT DEFAULT.
Newspapers will always exist; Newpaper Conglomerates with units that resemble General Motors late 1970s "cookie-cutter car designs" will not.
1) Real Estate lending system is dead; 9.4% of all mortgages in the US are in default of some type EFFECT > Houses will not sell (real estate ads will not revive soon)
2) consumers (corporate, govt) debt is CRUSHING their ability to buy things. EFFECT > retails profits & debt service will be crushed > ad buying (and paying newpapers for ads) will decline;
3) AUTO SALES (because of 1 & 2) are dropping rapidly (see GM, Ford & Chrysler begging for $50 Billion in govt loan) EFFECT > car ad sales will not revive soon.
4) I bought my car & motorcyle in the last six months from Craigslist.
Unfortunately, even good companies will be destroyed in this process.
I don't mean to give GCI leadership a pass, but they really can't do anything but react like the people in Texas did with IKE. They weren't predared for this environment because they lack the necessary multi-decade economic analytic time horizon .
GCI is actually stronger than it's peers BUT that won't save it.
What exacerbated the situation was the Acquisition Binge from 2002-2004. GCI (like so many real estate investors and speculators) over paid for papers and BORROWED to pay for it. Now the properties are worth less than the debt.
For detailed analysis of & insights on current economic conditions Google: Kondratiev-Wave and Joseph Schumpeter.
I agree that newspapers will not die. What GCI employees need to realizes is that they also will not continue in their current form.
ReplyDeleteIt's true that radio still exists, but the payscales in radio -- at least for the content providers -- are miserable. I know because I've worked full-time in both mediums. Once upon a time, radio paid well.
So, yes, there will continue to be jobs in newspapers. The question is, "Will they pay enough to satisfy an experienced journalist?" I'm betting not unless you're one of a handful of folks with a broad national reputation.
Stock is down over 5%, while DJ was down 2.93%. Of course it came on a day compounded by another poor quarter. Nothing is going to get better until complete transparency occurs with the subprime mess. Once all of that is identified, acknowledged, and firewalled off, then the long road back will at least be visible on the horizon. I am not so sure anyone could traverse the mess differently now, but I think there was a level of complacency and incompetence in the prior two years. Had some folks shown more savvy, it could have left GCI much better positioned to weather a severe downturn.
ReplyDeleteNewspapers have been around 300 years - Internet, 20 years (widescale public use); percentage of ad revenue for Gannett papers from online 2-3% - the rest from what? Print; everyone uses email but that big company that has managed to survive? Oh yeah - the United States Postal Service. Online & the technology that supports it costs big bucks - what I wonder is will/if someone figure out how to make big$ from it
ReplyDelete