Wednesday, October 22, 2008
Wednesday | Oct. 22 | Got news, or a question?
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63 comments:
Jim says: "Proceed with caution; this is a free-for-all comment zone. I try to correct or clarify incorrect information. But I can't catch everything. Please keep your posts focused on Gannett and media-related subjects. Note that I occasionally review comments in advance, to reject inappropriate ones. And I ignore hostile posters, and recommend you do, too."
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The forecast is for unusually warm temperatures in San Francisco, starting today: 80s or so. Summer comes late to the city, usually in September and October.
ReplyDeleteLast month, paranoid after wave after wave of staff reductions, I left my hometown Gannett paper after more than 14 years in the newsroom. Monday, I received a bill for underpayment of my optional life insurance. A 44-cent underpayment.
ReplyDeleteNow, the envelope had a first class stamp on it, meaning Gannett spent (at least) 42 cents to collect this 44 cents.
I'm not going to pay it right away, to see how far they go to collect a measly 44 cents.
Given the collapse of the auto industry (large car dealer in central Jersey has not sold ONE CAR since mid-September), job market implosion, financial system implosion, real estate market implosion, etc., cut in staff over 3,000-to-6,500 over the next year are resonable to expect. Profits will evaporate...the company is and will struggle....many of us have been/are/will be suffering financailly and emotionally from these difficult times.
ReplyDeletePeople are scared -by tacit intimidation- into lying about overtime (to save the company money)
IF Dubow & Martone get the "Golden Parachuttes" laid out last year -which are based on liquidation and or break-up of the company and/or their separation from the company, I'm going to file an S.E.C. complaint and a Federal Lawsuit. They better not take ONE F**KING dime.
In one NJ group they were treated to a joint lunch (HNT and CN) yesterday.Everyone seems to think it's because the papers are really going to merge (become 1 newspaper).
ReplyDeleteCraig's List may have done newspapers a fabor Oct. 15 when it started chargint $25 for each help wanted ad.
ReplyDeleteCheck out your local Craig's List.
There were at least a half dozen ads for writers every day on the Dallas list before Oct. 15.
Only one on the 16th. None for several days and finally one again yesterday.
There were some abuses, people advertising jobs only to mine the people's info for nefarious purposes. And some of the jobs were obviously a ruse for getting people to do stuff for free, even though pay was promised.
But this is one more "free" classified option that's closed, at least for now.
6:49 I hear you. But good luck. And get in line behind Wall Street and the auto industry.
ReplyDeleteoh yeah and the Home Depot CEO and all the others who ran companies where stock tanked and they walked away with millions.
The real winners are the slime bag lawyers.
BEER FINANCE
ReplyDeleteIf you had purchased $1,000 of AIG stock one year ago, you would have $42
left.
With Lehman, you would have $6.60 left.
With Fannie or Freddie, you would have less than $5 left.
But if you had purchased $1,000 worth of beer one year ago, drank all
of the beer, then turned in the cans for the aluminum recycling for a
REFUND, you would have had $214.
Based on the above, the best current investment advice is to drink heavily
and recycle.
It's called the 401-Keg.....
NOTE: $1,000 of GANNETT Stock 1-Year Ago would be worth $255.11, so we’re not doing that bad
Cramer focused his entire show last night on the only investment strategy he recommends right now: buy and hold stocks with large dividends. It's our only hope I guess since GCI still pays the dividend and we can reinvest that. As bad as the ad climate is, the dividend is still a draw.
ReplyDeleteThe Dividend WON'T LAST.
ReplyDeleteHigh Dividend Yields are not always a good thing. Sometimes they are like a "fever" that indicates a financial illness.
Jim, how did you allow Todd's nasty comments about certain named employees? seems like set up for libel at the most and just flat rude at the least. That guy is just nasty.
ReplyDeleteWe will see what that dividend is if there is any this year. LOL
ReplyDeleteThere is no way to understand this market. Apple reported a 26 percent increase in profits yesterday and all other indicators were strong, including billions of cash. Then UBS downgraded the stock.
ReplyDeleteSo if a company like Apple can't get a break, there is no hope for any single stock on the market right now.
Whatever happens with GCI reporting this week and the analysts have their say, it won't make any sense either.
NY Times Company 3rd qtr analyst call on Thursday this week at 11am.
ReplyDeleteMcClatchy had their call on Tuesday.
The Market (& Economy) does make sense when you study it from a perspective 50-to-200 year increments.
ReplyDeleteTo anyone under the age of 80 or 85 these conditions seem "unique, unexpected, uncharted waters, etc." (to quote media). Anyone over that age has and adult living memory of the Great Depression and understands what's happening.
Overall Debt-to-G.D.P. is the highest it has been since 1929 (higher actually). We are experiencing a massive uncontrollable deleveraging of $42 Tillion (an increasing) of DEBT when our INCOME (G.D.P.) of $14 Trillion is declining FAST.
The Stock Market is now worth ...say...$15 Trillion; but remember DEBT comes before equity on a Balance Sheet. If debt can't be serviced EQUITY is destroyed.
That is what you are seeing.
GCI under ten dollars. What a bargain.
ReplyDeleteWow. GCI this morning fell through the $10, now trading in the $9's. An all time historic low. Hey, you guys up in the glass towers in McLean, you listening? Time for a new and better business plan.
ReplyDeleteNo business plan in the worl can help any stock right now.
ReplyDeleteHey 9:20, that is the best i have heard it explained and far more alarming than most of us think.
Sounds like America's addiction to credit compared with our incomes has finally caught up with us all....
Thank you for the compliment.
ReplyDeletefor more information:
GOOGLE:
PANIC OF 1873,
KONDRATIEV WAVE,
ROBERT A. MUNDELL 1999 Nobel Lecture-Econoics
Maybe, I'll be able to make a living with my knowledge after I get Whacked....LOL.
Anybody Up for a HOSTILE TAKEOVER of the company?
ReplyDeleteI still have a cash-advance line on my Visa Card.
After number keep crashing, we should be able to pick GANNETT off for $0.50 a share.
That's assuming they don't sell all our trucks, computers, desks, and pens on Craigslist...lol.
401 Keg? I like it! I think I'll do a little investing this weekend.
ReplyDelete9:20 You got your figures wrong. It is not $42 trillion (and increasing) debt, it is really $181 trillion. The U.S. economy is only about $15 trillion. Read the Comptroller of the Currency reports on the derivative markets and you will see what is driving the Treasury to pump money into nine chosen banks. There is a big deleveraging coming, and it won't be pretty.
ReplyDeletep.s. The $181 trillion is owned by U.S. banks, according to the Comptroller.
ReplyDelete11:05 Your DOUBLE COUNTING derivatives & bank deposits.
ReplyDeleteThe NOTIONAL VALUE of ALL DERIVATIVES is approximately $608 TRILLION; that does not represent ACTUAL ASSETS.
It's a little difficult to explain here. The TOTAL NON-FINANCIAL DEBT of the United States (individual, corporate, governmental (local, state & federal) is approximatly $42 Trillion (see Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System www.frs.org) Bank assets DO NOT count because they cancel each other out.
For more information, go to the International Swap & Derivative Association website. Also go to www.bis.org -the Bank for International Settlements.
Its not good for any stock ....no matter how you slice it.
ReplyDeleteGCI is actually better off than most over the next 6 months. But thy will manage by cutting costs which includes jobs.
Like a great deal of other companies, layoffs will be unavoidable.
The company's stock has now traded below $10, back to Sept. 1985 levels.
ReplyDeleteThat means 23 years of gains are gone:
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=GCI#chart1:symbol=gci;range=my;indicator=volume;charttype=candlestick;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=off;source=undefined
Noce job, BOD, you should all be canned. Not even any buybacks going on, which shows no company support.
The chart is uglier than Dubow's shoes.
No I'm not. The Comptroller of the Currency puts the total value of derivatives held by U.S. banks at $182.1 trillion as of the second quarter:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.occ.treas.gov/ftp/release/2008-115a.pdf
If you read this, it has nothing to do with bank deposits, etc., but is primarily involving credit default swaps, which are essentially securities on insurance policies.
Sorry, 11:33 directed at 11:05
ReplyDeleteAdjusted for Inflation, the GANNETT is probably closer to 1975-77 levels.....not sure, just ballpark
ReplyDelete11:33 you can e-mail me at weiji2009@live.com and we can discuss data. This is interesting to you & I but is probably boring to others participants.
ReplyDeleteI was using Total Derivatives in the world furnished in several recent Bank for International Settlements reports. www.bis.org
It's not boring. This is the first time I have seen these figures and if Jim doesn't mind, I find this discussion very helpful.
ReplyDeleteMy Uncle sent me an e-mail showing a One Dollar Bill with George Washington screaming. I replied with this note:
ReplyDeleteSubject: shrinking US Dollar
Dear Uncle Alan
Funny cartoon about the SHRINKING VALUE of the U.S. DOLLAR. THAT'S A GOOD ONE. Thanks for the much needed comic relief......I've run out of Xanax.
By my crude count; since September 1, 2008 (4 WEEKS) , the Federal Reserve System (and the U.S. Treasury) have created approximately $,2,800,000,000,000.00 in new FAKE CASH. That does NOT include additions to "Liquidity" by the central banks of: Great Britain, the European Union, Reserve Bank of Australia, Norway, Japan Denmark, New Zealand, (I know I'm missing a few...my memory banks need to be purged ..LOL).
Read up on Weimar Republic (German) Hyperinflation from 1921-to-1924. Mark my words Uncle, we are planting the seeds for such an insidious suffocating period. To put in in our terms: what cost $1.00 in January-1920 cost $1.35 in August-1921 >>>it then cost $10.00 in July-1922>>> it then cost $100.00 in January-1923>>> it cost $10,000.00 in July-1923>>> it FINALLY COST (on November 15th, 1923) $100,000,000,000.00 ($100 Billion). The Econo-Psychological Distortions inflicted by this "Legal-Counterfeiting" on the German people demoralized them so much that they became receptive to any voice that promised better days and a stronger nation>>>Hitler.
Throughout history, governments think they can print a little money to get out of short-term problems, but it has ALWAYS FAILED. It starts off small and them the power of compounding makes the whole situation get out of control. Paul Volcker couldn't stop this. The Congress, as usual, will Fall to the Occasion (see wooden arrow tax credit amendment to Senate Bail-Out Bill). When foreign creditors finally come to the inescapable conclusion that the United States is a bad credit risk, watch out. We've been going to our "Local Bar" and running a continuous tab for a long, long time. What happens to the impaired credit markets when our formerly friendly accommodating bar tender (US Foreign Creditors) says, "Sorry Uncle Sam, you gotta put something down on the bar for today's "Drink" (our $2 Billion Daily Fix of foreign credit). God Forbid our friendly bartender calls in part or all of our tab. Watch the 1982 movie ROLLOVER.....it's a financial-thriller and very instructive.
The inflation of the 1970s is little a runaway train going down a mountain; This is like shooting atomic particles through an particle accelerator and the Speed of Light.
I'll bet you (in GOLD) that within 2 years, the US Government will begin re-issuing $500, $1,000 Federal Reserve Notes; $5,000 & $10,000 Federal Reserve Notes will follow a year or two later..
Take care Uncle Alan,
$9.99 a share. Wow, seems like the perfect opportunity to "bundle" a stock certificate around a copy of USA Today and sell both for one low price at the soon to be opened retail stores.
ReplyDeleteThe NJ Group is awaiting layoffs tomorrow, unless they merely announce the fact that they will occur next week. May as well make as many employees as possible miserable for the weekend! Ads have shrunk in size to the extent that they cannot be easily found. In addition, morale has not been boosted at the HNT and CN by the luncheon yesterday. Many of us were waiting for pink slips for dessert!
ReplyDeleteFor those who expect to be employed longer, there is an ominous discomfort about why information on the health benefits plans are so late.
"Aside from that," Mrs. Lincoln,"it was a very good show"!
12:45 Funny, but if the dollar is shrinking, the currencies of the rest of the world must be shrinking even faster, because it has increased phenomenally on the market in the last two months.
ReplyDeleteYes, the Fed has released a lot of money into this market. But it is just temporary. They eventually will withdraw most of it (which will cause some real economic pain) and so it is not a permanent increase. This is hardly good news for Gannett, because the company has taken on $1.2 billion in debt for unexplained reasons, and can only has a healthy future if the economy returns to some health soon.
If you are worried about a total collapse, put your money in gold if you want. But if there is the sort of collapse you see (which I think very remote), then who are you going to sell your gold coin to? And, have you taken a look at gold prices recently? Back to the dollar's surge in value, it looks to me that international investors have more confidence in the dollar than in gold.
1:08 What you are seeing is a temporary "Masking" of future High-Inflation by the supply&demand caused drop in the "Natural Price Level" of real estate (and now overpriced(based on profit projections) capital equipment). Once the natural supply&demand price level stabilizes, the Monetary Inflation caused by the central banks will surface like a Tsunami when it approaches the shoreline.
ReplyDeleteIn the middle of the ocean a tsunami barely registers 2-5 inches, when hit shore though...watch-out.
We are experiencing what I call a Multiple Contraction in Credit combined with a Monetary (and soon Fiscal) Inflation, that will ultimately result in a Hyper-Inflationary Depression. If you don't think it's possible, look at the current Zimbabwe Hyperinflation.
GateHouse Media, Inc. will be de-listed from the New York Stock Exchange as of Friday's open.
ReplyDeleteGateHouse first traded in October-2006 for approximately $21.00 Per Share.....It now 17.2 CENTS.
I guess it worse for others
1:19 Actually, what we will see next year is deflation, not inflation. Gold will also deflate sharply in value.
ReplyDelete7:18, the new CN office is 3,000 sf. Sounds more like a bureau than a headquarters for a daily paper. I'm sure the 15 people that still work in Bridgewater will fit just fine in the new space. No one I know at CN is aware of the small space they will be working out of. As far as merger between CN and HNT, that is pretty much a done deal. The final step is a combined flag, which there is some reluctance to. Who knows, the economy may change that. But layoffs are guaranteed, especially in several departments that did not see any departures.
ReplyDeletePrinting money will mean that more dollars are chasing the same amount of goods. This will cause inflation. The government is essentially printing money right now.
ReplyDelete1:56 Buy a plane ticket to Washington, D.C., take a cab to the U.S. Bureau of the Mint, and you will see no new presses. There has been no printing of additional money. The Fed has just been backing up loans, sort of like when you co-sign on someone else's debt.
ReplyDeleteMy relatively new stock ticker widget, showing Gannett's current stock price, seems to be on the fritz.
ReplyDeleteOrdinarily, it publishes at the top of the green sidebar on the right. The code is still there, but for some reason, the widget isn't displaying. Such is the challenge of free software. In any case, I'm on top of it.
CN and HNT layoff posts: What's your source? Is it credible, a higher up or just making rumors?
ReplyDelete2:13- I don't believe this one. Are more layoffs coming- absolutely, but I doubt it will be this week or next. I think everyone is still scrambling trying to figure this one out. But don't fool yourself- more layoffs are coming.
ReplyDelete2:13, the new CN digs aren't in Bridgewater.
ReplyDelete2:41 I heard they were in Somerville. Is that true?
ReplyDelete2:44, they will be across from the courthouse in a building that formerly was occupied by several county government departments.
ReplyDeleteAnyone heard anything about further staff reductions at USAT?
ReplyDeleteMoving to a new city is a bold move for CN, especially with a weekly already in Somerville. Looks like it will be an interesting battle.
ReplyDelete@2:00 - what do you think the national debt consists of? as if they needed to actually print money to put more money in circulation. and, actually, the fed hasn't really done anything yet but they will be injecting new money into the system to provide the confidence that one bank will be able to pay the other bank back for inter bank loans. paulson was on charlie rose just last night explaining this.
ReplyDeleteThis is interesting, just got an Arizona Republic email from azcentral.com. Apparently they think I'm a willing subscriber to their listserv. They used my commercial address, marizco@borderreporter.com, and when I click unsubscribe, I'm taken to a blank page.
ReplyDeleteI wonder if this is Gannett's new plan for building online readership.
Nothing yet????? If you don't think putting Fannie and Freddie directly under the government, taking AIG into conservancy, pledging to underwrite commercial paper, and bankrolling nine selected banks isn't something, there is no hope for you.
ReplyDeleteThe big fall in stock price today could have something to do with the £'s huge fall against the $ today. Newsquest profits back to corporate take a hit with every cent decline.
ReplyDeleteAnon---8:02am---The problem with Gannett is that they never named anybody who was bringing this mess down. I never want anybody to lose their job---not even the people who caused me to lose my job. I have stated many times before the management in ALL the Gannett local papers need to be dismissed and start with the real people who WANT to work for a just cause.
ReplyDeleteThe collapse of GCI only slightly related to the declining pound, and more connected to that emergency $1.2 billion loan. There has to be some explanation for it, and there is none. Why does a company producing the sort of revenues Gannett produces suddenly need a $1.2 billion cash infusion?
ReplyDeleteNYT's Sulzberger: 'We can't care' if newspapers go away
ReplyDeleteCould the information age's fast-paced news overload be a boon to the old-media companies that it was supposedly going to force out of business?
That was one of the suggestions brought forth by Arthur Sulzberger, Jr., chairman and publisher of the New York Times Company, at his keynote address at the WebbyConnect conference on Wednesday morning. "Our 21st-century news cycle, with its trials and tribulations, feels even more immediate because of our access," he said. "It is reasonable to ask: Do we need all this news and information? Do we want all this news and information? Can we tolerate all this news and information?"
http://news.cnet.com/8301-13577_3-10072968-36.html?part=rss&subj=news&tag=2547-1_3-0-20
How long until GCI is taken off the Big board?
ReplyDeleteGateHouse Media to Exit Big Board This Week
By Mark Fitzgerald
CHICAGO GateHouse Media Inc. stock will be de-listed by the New York Stock Exchange before the market opens this Friday, the exchange’s regulatory arm announced.
The beleagured community newspaper publisher had submitted a plan for getting back into compliance for listing -- but NYSE Regulation Inc. said it decided not to give the plan a chance.
“NYSE Regulation also determined that the ‘abnormally low’ price of the stock makes it appropriate to suspend the company’s common stock at this time rather than provide the company an opportunity to cure its non-compliance with the NYSE’s quantitative requirements,” the regulator said in its announcement.
GateHouse, which trades under the symbol GHS, closed at 18 cents Tuesday, and had not traded above $1 a share since July.
Under the Big Board’s listing requirements, stocks that trade below $1.05 over a 30-day average, or fall below the minimum market capitalization of $75 million, risk delisting.
GateHouse’s indicated market cap at the close of markets Tuesday was $10.46 million.
Fourteen additional newspaper jobs posted today, including four in digital sales. If you were a victim of job elimination recently, you might want to see if one of the jobs looks like the one they said was eliminated when they laid you off.
ReplyDelete>>>Anyone heard anything about further staff reductions at USAT?
ReplyDeleteQuestions like this are crazy. No one here is going to 'hear' anything about staff reductions. Rumors are total nonsense.
Unbelievable.
2:50 p.m. and 8:26 p.m.: In fact, I've often been surprised at the things people say when you ask them a question like that.
ReplyDeleteIn the case of any layoffs, we would learn about them on Gannett Blog in one of two ways: officially or unofficially.
Officially: Gannett/USAT issues a statement
Unofficially: A higher-ranking manager is privy to the information, and then e-mails me at gannettblog@gmail.com -- or leaves a note in one of the blog's comments sections. That, indeed, is how someone "hears'' about layoffs.
It's happened before. So, bottom line: keep asking questions!
hey, honolulu --
ReplyDeletehow did you get gci to ok letting seniority rule if there are too many volunteers for buyouts?
Mike did not resign; he was canned:
ReplyDeleteMike Ward, who resigned as news director of Channel 9/WUSA in September, suffered a serious stroke two weeks ago. Agent Rick Gevers reports that Ward's condition is "not life threatening, but the prognosis for his recovery is described as difficult at best"
Here's a question: When Dickey talks about consolidating press operations as he did last Friday in Louisville's C-J meeting, what's he talking about? How would that happen? He also said something about how the company was trying to get out from under as many "fixed expenditures" as possible. Can anyone make any sense of this or lay out some possible likely scenarios?
ReplyDelete11:02....it's already happened twice in the last 60 days. Iowa city production was completely shut down and moved to Des Moines. Baxter/Mntn Home was shut down and moved to Springfield. By the way, what happened to the publisher in MTN Home.
ReplyDeleteLook at a map for more ....Clarksville moving to Nashville, Port Huron possibly move to Detroit, Hattiesburg to Jackson, etc...
More cuts are coming before the end of the year.
These "rumors" are not totally nonsense, consider the moves already done and you can logically predict some of the ones coming.
More cuts coming and more consolidations of properties and printing.